Growth might be impacted by up to 0.30 per cent in the March quarter as normal economic activities come under pressure due to restrictions being imposed by more states to curb rising Omicron cases, economists at the country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank said on Tuesday. The economists said they were earlier estimating Q4 growth to come at 6.1 per cent, which can get impacted by 0.2-0.3 per cent because of the Omicron threat. "With states imposing Covid-related restrictions (night curfew on movement of people, restaurants allowed at 50 per cent capacity, offices to operate at 50 per cent capacity in various states), economic activity is likely to get impacted in Q4FY22," they said.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
A weaker-than-expected sales performance, concerns about higher competitive intensity in the current year, and earning cuts by some brokerages have weighed on the stock of the country's largest paint maker, Asian Paints. While the Q3 volume show was slightly below expectations, the company's operational and bottom line beat estimates, benefiting from the falling raw material costs. The stock ended the day with a decline of over 2 per cent at Rs 3,175 apiece.
China has cast a long shadow on India's economy.
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
The froth in the small and midcap (SMID) space is limited to a few pockets, but regulatory scrutiny could lead to sustained volatility, observe India's top-drawer wealth managers. They add that they have been advising clients to reduce their exposure to smallcaps. Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages investor wealth through mutual funds (MFs), reports that its exposure to smallcap stocks, both through MFs and directly, has decreased by nearly 7 percentage points in the past few months, now standing at 23 per cent.
'Those satisfied with returns and not expecting further rally could be booking profits and also stopping SIPs.'
The growth in the contact-intensive portion of the economy trailed our expectation, highlighting how imperative it is for confidence to improve, either through accelerated vaccinations or otherwise, to drive a sustainable recovery in these sectors, asserts Aditi Nayar.
Mutual fund houses have been on an equity buying spree in the past three months as they have invested a net amount of Rs 55,000 crore in them between January and March 2023. The number is more than double the amount deployed in the preceding three months (October to December), signalling improved valuations and favourable economic indicators. The valuations, which had peaked in October 2021, returned to its long-term average in March 2023.
The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
The IIP data showed a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which grew at 4.2 per cent in July 2019 as compared to 7 per cent a year ago.
The Indian economy is expected to grow around 10 per cent during the current financial year on the likelihood of fewer COVID-19-linked supply disruptions and buoyancy in the global economy, said Poonam Gupta, director general of economic think-tank NCAER. The real challenge, however, would be to sustain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent in years to come, she said. "We could see annual growth in the ballpark range of about 10 per cent. "The reasons for this perceived optimism are: fewer supply disruptions; increased pent-up demand in the traditional and contact-intensive services; and a buoyant global economy.
Industrial output growth rate remained flat in April.
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
Despite a slowdown, HUL introduced products such as Tresemme and Magnum into the Indian market
Most investors should have a 5% to 10% allocation to gold for diversification. They should stagger their investments to mitigate timing risk.
The industrial production index, which contracted by 0.4 per cent in October for the first time in 15 years, will continue to show a slowing trend till the end of 2009 with some chance of recovery later, feel economists.
Although the third quarter of financial year (2023-2024) FY24 (Q3FY24) was marginally below expectations, Info Edge (India) is witnessing strong investment trends and hitting new highs. The big driver is optimism about a pickup in the jobs market, which benefits Naukri.com and could mean upgrades in Q4FY24 expectations. The JobSpeak Index, which Naukri.com releases on a monthly basis, is showing a "transformative shift".
A look at six indicators shows all of them have collapsed from positive growth in April to contraction in September.
Led by Ola Electric, which registered an industry record of 53,186 vehicles in March, electric two-wheeler (e2W) penetration hit a record at 8.91 per cent - the highest ever for a month (based on Vahan data).
Dabur gets nearly a third of its Rs 2,900-crore international sales from Africa
Rajan said the government focussed more on fulfilling its political and social agenda rather than paying attention to the economic growth.
In its latest report for second quarter 2008, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj said that though Indian office markets have continued to post growth over the past few years, the last few quarters have seen a polarisation in the office markets in terms of growth in demand across the country. It has categorised the office markets across six major cities -- Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata -- in three broad segments.
Data for 2011 are expected to reveal the number of outbound travellers from India rose 10%, with the West vying for a major slice of the market pie.
'The Indian economy is expected to grow in terms of per capita income and GDP, and with that, the luxury segment becomes more relevant.'
Direct tax collection, net of refunds, moderately exceeded the revised estimates (RE) for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on the back of personal income tax revenues, but corporation tax receipts fell short of the RE. Net direct tax collection stood at Rs 19.58 trillion in FY24, surpassing the RE of Rs 19.45 trillion by Rs 13,000 crore, or 0.7 per cent. The government had revised up FY24 projections for personal income tax by 13.5 per cent over the Budget estimates (BE) of Rs 9 trillion, at Rs 10.22 trillion.
According to Nielsen, rural growth has plunged to a low 5 per cent in the third quarter of quarter from a high 20 per cent a year ago. This has for the first time in seven years rural growth has fallen below urban levels.
Debit card transactions showed an increase of 88.6 per cent, against a rise of 34.5 per cent for credit cards for the March. In value terms, daily transactions through debit cards increased by 73.4 per cent vis-a-vis an increase of 24.8 per cent in credit card transactions. Sector experts attribute this to the ongoing economic slowdown and the cautious attitude towards spending money. Add to this the diminished focus of banks in issuing credit cards.
The US slowdown coupled with rupee appreciation, talent crunch and rising salaries, and the 2010 sunset clause on tax holiday for IT firms, is putting knowledge process outsourcing firms in a bind.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The World Bank has retained India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3 per cent as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, surpassing pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors. "India's economy is expected to expand by 8.3 per cent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June's forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.
India's gold demand rose 8 per cent annually to 136.6 tonne in the March quarter helped by a strong economic environment despite prices touching historic highs, according to the World Gold Council. The aggressive gold buying by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also contributed to the rise in demand. India's gold demand in value terms rose 20 per cent on an annual basis to Rs 75,470 crore during the January-March period of this year on volume growth as well as a rise in quarterly average prices by 11 per cent.
The US slowdown, service tax on leased and rented premises and imposition of minimum alternate tax are expected to take a toll on the revenue and earnings growth rates of all frontline IT companies in 2007-08.
"The outlook for exports in 2008-09 may not be as bright as in the past few years with lower projections in world GDP and world imports and exchange rate developments," according to the pre-Budget Economic Survey tabled in Parliament.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India have moved into the slow lane, dropping 43 per cent in terms of deal value to touch $13.37 billion since January this year to date, compared to the same period in the last year. According to data sourced from Bloomberg, Indian companies reported deal value worth $23.5 billion between January and March 22, 2023. Data Infrastructure Trust's acquisition of American Tower Corporation's India telecom towers business for $2.5 billion was the top deal for the ongoing quarter so far, followed by the Highway Infrastructure Trust's acquisition of PNC Infratech's road projects for $1.08 billion.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
By taking the mutual fund route, investors can take exposure to gilts with small amounts. Over a decade or more, returns from these funds tend to be sound.
